Today's 2014 Oscar predictions update to the Best Supporting Actor charts has also caused movement in the Best Actor charts as three of my Best Actor contenders are no more, two moving over to Best Supporting Actor and one looks like it's going to be a 2014 release.
I have removed Michael Peña from the Best Actor charts because word is Diego Luna's Chavez may be looking at a late January 2014 release, timed to coincide with the late Hugo Chávez's birthday. This isn't to say an Oscar-qualifying run couldn't take place, but with the news circling, for the time being I've taken Pena out of contention.
Additionally, I've heard Tom Hanks' role in Saving Mr. Banks is tiny and definitely not a lead performance so he's been moved over to the Supporting charts, which actually works in his favor given he's far more likely to stand a better chance for his Captain Phillips performance seeing how he won't have to worry about competing with himself.
I've also moved Ben Affleck and his Runner, Runner performance to the Supporting charts as that's a film that looks like Justin Timberlake is the certain lead, though I can't say I have high expectations for its Oscar chances after that first trailer. Might be a good film, but doesn't really look like an Oscar kind of feature.
The top five in my Best Actor predictions hasn't changed and you can see the full chart right here, which is to say, "Yes, I don't see reason to drop Leonardo DiCaprio from the #1 spot after the trailer for The Wolf of Wall Street last night." It may have been more comedic that most of you expected, but I'm not forgetting the fact it's directed by Martin Scorsese and having read a chunk of the material, it looks like Scorsese has captured that insanity described by Jordan Belfort in his autobiography. I expect the film will still carry a lot of emotional and dramatic weight.
Moving into the Supporting category, however, there are quite a few changes as I have two brand new contenders in the top five and have added six new contenders overall bringing the total number of Supporting contenders to 40.
To begin, I've kept Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher) at #1 for now. I see no reason to drop him at this time and hope we'll see a little something official for the film soon as Sony has done absolutely nothing for it so far.
I have moved Michael Fassbender (Twelve Years a Slave) to the #2 slot and behind him added Matt Damon (Monuments Men) to the list after I had originally left everyone in the ensemble off, not knowing where they would likely fall, but this seems to be the agreed upon placement... for now.
Previous #2, Josh Brolin (Labor Day) has moved down a couple notches, largely due to the competition now above him and with a little advance buzz for Alec Baldwin in Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine, he finds himself debuting on my charts in the #5 slot. Blue Jasmine, of course, is just around the corner so we'll see if Baldwin's performance is one that looks like it can sustain a long awards season or not.
So my top five right now looks like this:
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
Michael Fassbender (Twelve Years a Slave)
Matt Damon (Monuments Men)
Josh Brolin (Labor Day)
Alec Baldwin (Blue Jasmine)
You can see my full chart of Best Supporting Actor and Best Actor predictions here and here. You will need to be a logged in member of RopeofSilicon to view any rankings beyond the top five, but registration is free so that shouldn't be too much trouble.
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